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Topic: Iranian Delusions?  (Read 4796 times)
Seneca
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« on: July 19, 2006, 08:21:10 PM »


In every war in the last 50 yers Israel was incredibly successful militarily in beating her Arab enemies. However, such embarrassment did not befall on Iran ever - so here you have two undefeated enemies squaring-off.

The only reason because of which Iran is so bold, so loud and so emboldened this year is the idiotic failure of the Americans in Iraq under a failed and corrupt Washington leadership (the word 'corruption' is too lame to describe what is going on in Washington and Pentagon).

This does not mean that Iran can easily win the coming hot war against the West. China and Russia will disappear in the shadows of international politics the way they have when their past proteges were served with a bitter taste of American weaponry (Haiti, Serbia, Iraq) despite all of their combined protests. Russia even made noises about nukes being pointed at America because of its war on stubborn 'ally' Serbia and yet - when the time to act came - China and Russia merely remained seated on the sidelines and huffed and puffed in indignation at the American action. Thus, I would advise the Iranian not make too much of the combined "China-Russia" support. China and Russia will fight America to the last drop of FOREIGN blood. 50 years of cold 'Cold War' are proof enough of the fact that Russia will not fight America directly no matter what (but will use profitable proxies whenever possible). China will fight (as the Korean War proved) but only on its own doorstep in accordance with its own ages-old historical experience.

The first post-colonial political awakening of Arabs came through nationalism (Nasser, Quaddafi, Moussadeq, Kassam, BenBella, (Ali-Jinnah in Pakistan), etc.). Arafat was already a transitional figure from nationalism to militant religious mysticism. Today, half the rulers are bought with American money and others rely on a mixture of religious mysticism and political hierarchy built under the nationalistic period to stay in power.

The grass-roots (other than the silent Fellaheen) however has fully embraced Islamic religious mysticism (one expression of this is the publicly-sanctioned commonplace practice of suicide attacks) unlike in the past when the masses of Muslims were sweeping the battlefields of the Middle East in nationalistic rhetorical as well as combined military attacks on Western interests (including the Zionist ones) - with mixed results. In Algeria they succeeded, but in Iran they failed. This whole period was crowned by the famous 'Non-alignement Movement" Pact founded by the Tito-Nasser-Nehru alliance (in Belgrade, Yugoslavia in 1961). Supposedly this was a '3rd Way' between the East and West but in political direction it became a 3rd Rail of Soviet foreign policy. China was lost in political space at this time.

Ironically enough (the non-member of the Pact) Russia benefitted the most (although India and Yugoslavia did too - to an extent) but Russian know-how flooded the Arab world, the massive Asswan dam in Egypt was built and Russian weapons (the only form of industrial production in Russia which could export anything to anyone) flooded the fervor of the nationalistic anti-Western movements across the globe (soon to arm the American 'soft-underbelly' of Latin America using such famously illustrious figures as Che Guevara and Fidel Castro (as poster-boys of this nationalistic revolutional-liberation movement support approach)). AK47 which was mowing down the brave but hopeles German soldiers in Russia (as PPSh41 - a terrific predecessor of AK47) but now it found its way to every man with a cause to fight for and became the inseparable symbol of "freedom-loving fighters" across the non-Western worlds.

Iran, to its diplomatic credit, is trying to organize popular support for itself across the Sunni Middle East - by banking on the fact that, if nothing else, at least the hatred for a common enemy such as Israel - can unite the Sunnis and Shi'ias (if only for an expedient historical moment). Iran knows that its Shi'ia empire can only begin once Israel is down and under.

Iran will find itself militarily destroyed and humiliated unless it learns from the Chinese patience of the centuries. China is the only power today that is sure to beat the United States in a battle of patience-attrition - so that some day (perhaps in not too distant future) it will strike without difficulty when American system collapses. The only true empire-builders today are the Chinese - all the rest are mere pretenders who come and go - Iran is very close to becoming one of them.

America is not Saddam's Iraq and even then - the practice of sending throngs of boys to death with keys to Paradise hanging from their necks will not make-up for what is missing in practice.
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("Willing Individuals Advance On the Wings of Destiny - Unwilling Ones Stagger-on by Destiny's Coattails.")

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« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2007, 02:11:33 PM »

Much to my shame I have only just read this interesting analysis of the Iranian situation, although since Seneca posted this article there have been further developments on the world's geo-political stage.
The combined US- Israeli propaganda machine has been steadily and remorselessly 'building its case' for a military solution to the "Iran Problem".
However I disagree to some degree with Seneca's views on China and Russia.
China has a very different agenda today - far removed from what it was a decade ago.
China is struggling with a potential demographic and logistical problem within its own vast borders. The rapid conversion to a capitalist/market driven system, albeit under the Party's control is creating political, social and economic tensions in China. The pace of industrialisation is causing massive population shifts across China into the newly industrialised and commercialised urban centres. The dispossed and impoverished people of China's provinces are flooding into the new boom towns and cities creating serious problems on housing stocks and services. The rapid uncontrolled industrial expansion has cut many corners, creating huge problems of pollution and environmental damage. Into this heady brew is the Chinese goverment agenda to rival the West economically and materially, but somehow to maintain a Marxist grip on the population. A distraction for the Chinese body politic is the unresolved question of Taiwan. The general feeling is that the Chinese will wait for the time when the West, and the USA in particular are over committed militarily, economically and politically elsewhere. Then China will act against Taiwan on a massive and rapid scale - invasion and subjugation before the West (USA) has time to act.
Russia has internal security problems of its own, but the ground is shifting.
All the indications are that Putin is looking to re-arm Russia on a scale not seen since the hey days of the USSR. The eastward march of Eastern European countries into NATO is prompting these moves on grounds of 'national security'.
Putin's tone towards the West and the USA in particular is starting to grow more hostile with echoes of the old Russia creeping back in.
Iran is the present focus of US/Isreali venom and is keeping the obsessibe Bush administration fixed on Iran while older enemies are shifting and re-positioning.
Time is not on the side of the USA and Israel.
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